April cycle revenue reached GHS 45.8M — +9.1% cycle-on-cycle, the strongest in four cycles — as loan count grew to 160,569 and yield recovered to 13.9% from March's 13.2% trough. The credit picture remains constructive: DR1 improved for the third consecutive cycle to 9.2% (March cohort), and the March cohort projects FRR30 at ~106.6–106.7%, above Ghana's 105.5% recovery threshold. Write-offs spiked to GHS 26.5M (+33.3%), drawn from the November–December 2025 vintage reaching DPD 150 — a legacy effect, not a signal about current lending quality — and caused the loanbook to contract -1.3% CoC to GHS 457.3M.
- Revenue: GHS 45.8M (+9.1% CoC) — 4-cycle high; yield recovered to 13.9% (+0.70pp) from March's 13.2% trough
- DR1 (Mar cohort): 9.2% (−0.50pp) — three consecutive cycles of improvement (Jan 9.8% → Feb 9.7% → Mar 9.2%)
- FRR1 (Mar cohort): 102.0% (+1.00pp) — projects FRR30 ~106.6–106.7%, above Ghana's 105.5% threshold
- Write-offs: GHS 26.5M (+33.3%) — Nov–Dec 2025 vintage; current cohorts tracking at lower DR
- Loanbook: GHS 457.3M (−1.3% CoC) — write-offs absorbed the net disbursement gain
Revised forecast not retrieved this run; outlook commentary reflects trajectory only.
Daily Revenue
GHS 1.53M
+9.1% CoC ▲
FRR
DPD1 (Mar)
102.0%
▲ +1.04pp
DPD30 (Feb)
105.5%
▼ -0.27pp
Loanbook
GHS 457.3M
-1.3% CoC ▼
Cycle Comparison
| Metric |
Jan
31d |
Feb
28d |
CoC Δ |
Mar
31d |
CoC Δ |
Apr
30d |
CoC Δ |
| Disbursements (M) |
316.7 |
308.8 |
+8.0% |
327.8 |
-4.1% |
329.1 |
+3.7% |
| /day (M) |
10.22 |
11.03 |
|
10.57 |
|
10.97 |
|
| Loan Count |
154,871 |
143,618 |
+2.7% |
158,303 |
-0.4% |
160,569 |
+4.8% |
| /day |
4,996 |
5,129 |
|
5,107 |
|
5,352 |
|
| Avg Ticket (GHS) |
2,045 |
2,150 |
+5.1% |
2,071 |
-3.7% |
2,049 |
-1.0% |
| L0 Count |
21,799 |
18,594 |
-5.6% |
21,840 |
+6.1% |
21,091 |
-0.2% |
| Repeat Count |
133,072 |
125,024 |
+4.0% |
136,463 |
-1.4% |
139,478 |
+5.6% |
|
| Revenue (M) |
45.4 |
42.4 |
+3.4% |
43.4 |
-7.6% |
45.8 |
+9.1% |
| /day (M) |
1.464 |
1.514 |
|
1.399 |
|
1.527 |
|
| Revenue Yield |
14.3% |
13.7% |
-0.60pp |
13.2% |
-0.50pp |
13.9% |
+0.70pp |
|
| Principal Repaid (M) |
287.9 |
288.8 |
+11.1% |
307.4 |
-3.9% |
308.4 |
+3.7% |
| Write-offs (M) |
17.7 |
18.8 |
+18.0% |
20.5 |
-1.4% |
26.5 |
+33.3% |
|
| Loanbook EOM (M) |
462.0 |
463.2 |
+0.3% |
463.1 |
-0.0% |
457.3 |
-1.3% |
| FRR DPD1 (all) |
101.1% |
101.0% |
-0.10pp |
102.0% |
+1.00pp |
— |
— |
| FRR DPD1 (organic) |
101.8% |
101.0% |
-0.80pp |
102.0% |
+1.00pp |
— |
— |
| FRR DPD30 ‡ |
105.8% |
105.5% |
-0.30pp |
— |
— |
— |
— |
| DR1 |
9.8% |
9.7% |
-0.10pp |
9.2% |
-0.50pp |
— |
— |
| DR30 |
6.0% |
5.8% |
-0.20pp |
~5.5–5.7% |
— |
~5.4–5.6% |
— |
| PAR30+ |
17.3% |
16.7% |
-0.60pp |
19.4% |
+2.70pp |
17.4% |
-2.00pp |
† Mar DR30 projected — only 7.2% matured.
† Apr DR30 projected — only 0.0% matured.
‡ FRR DPD30 maturity varies by cohort. Immature readings may shift.
FRR uses cohort view (DISBURSEMENTDATE). Organic excludes refinanced and delinquent restructurings. Postponements not excluded.
Repayment Performance
The March cohort is the latest with mature DPD1 readings. FRR1 reached 102.0% in March — both the all-loans and organic views agree, meaning no modified-loan distortion this cycle — and the cohort projects to FRR30 ~106.6–106.7%, above Ghana's 105.5% recovery threshold. DR1 dropped to 9.2% in March, marking the third consecutive cycle of improvement from 9.8% in January.
The January cohort carries a 0.7pp gap between the headline and organic FRR1 (101.1% vs 101.8%). Modified loans — refinanced and restructured contracts — dragged January's headline FRR1 down by 0.7pp. February and March show no such gap; organic and all views align.
April's DPD1 maturity stands at 5.3% and DPD30 maturity at 0.0% — too immature to read. The cycle comparison table and the FRR/DR detail tables both suppress April's FRR1, FRR1 organic, FRR30, DR1, and DR30 (actual) accordingly. February closed FRR30 at 105.5%, exactly at Ghana's recovery threshold; March's projection lifts above it. The March FRR30 actual will be available in the next cycle run.
FRR by Cycle — All vs Organic
| Cycle | Installments | FRR1 | FRR1 Organic | FRR30 | FRR30 Est. † | DPD1 Matured | DPD30 Matured |
|---|
| Jan | 217,357 | 101.1% | 101.8% | 105.8% | | 88.5% | 81.6% |
| Feb | 203,214 | 101.0% | 101.0% | 105.5% | | 80.9% | 69.7% |
| Mar | 224,061 | 102.0% | 102.0% | — | ~106.6–106.7% | 68.8% | 4.9% |
| Apr | 225,446 | — | — | — | | 5.3% | 0.0% |
† Projected from DPD1→DPD30 FRR conversion ratios of mature cohorts.
Organic excludes refinanced (ORIGINAL_LOAN) and delinquent restructurings. Postponements not excluded.
DR by Cycle (LIT — CG-excluded)
| Cycle | Loans | DR1 | DR30 | DR30 Est. † | DPD1 Matured | DPD30 Matured |
|---|
| Jan | 151,288 | 9.8% | 6.0% | | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Feb | 140,279 | 9.7% | 5.8% | | 100.0% | 99.5% |
| Mar | 151,592 | 9.2% | — | ~5.5–5.7% | 100.0% | 7.2% |
| Apr | 11,951 | 9.1% | — | ~5.4–5.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
† Projected from DPD1→DPD30 conversion ratios of mature cohorts.
Loanbook Flow Bridge
April's loanbook contracted GHS 5.8M cycle-on-cycle — from GHS 463.1M to GHS 457.3M. Net disbursements less principal repaid generated GHS 20.7M of additional loanbook; write-offs consumed GHS 26.5M, creating a net drain of GHS 5.8M. The April bridge closes cleanly against the LAH snapshot.
The January bridge carries a GHS 2.6M residual (0.56% of the loanbook). This reflects a timing difference between ENTRYDATE-based flow data and the LAH cycle-end snapshot. February, March, and April bridges resolve to zero.
| Component | Jan (M) | Feb (M) | Mar (M) | Apr (M) |
|---|
| BOM Loanbook | 453.5 | 462.0 | 463.2 | 463.1 |
| + Disbursed | 316.7 | 308.8 | 327.8 | 329.1 |
| − Principal Repaid | 287.9 | 288.8 | 307.4 | 308.4 |
| − Write-offs | 17.7 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 26.5 |
| = Implied EOM | 464.6 | 463.2 | 463.1 | 457.3 |
| LAH EOM | 462.0 | 463.2 | 463.1 | 457.3 |
| Residual | -2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
All flow components from LOANTRANSACTION by ENTRYDATE. LAH snapshots at cycle-end dates (7th).
PAR Composition
PAR30+ improved to 17.4% in April (GHS 79.5M), recovering from March's 19.4% (GHS 89.6M). The headline movement, however, masks a vintage of modified loans — refinanced and restructured contracts — aging through the PAR ladder and now mostly cleared.
Read the modified-share row: GHS 7.2M (20.0%) of January's PAR0 and GHS 9.6M (20.2%) of February's PAR0 were modified loans. That balance aged into PAR30 — GHS 4.7M (22.9%) in February, GHS 8.3M (26.3%) in March — and partly into PAR60 (GHS 3.6M / 17.6% in March). By April, modified shares have collapsed to near zero across every bucket. So March's PAR30 spike to GHS 31.4M was not a generic timing artifact; roughly GHS 8M of it was modified loans aging from PAR0. April's improvement is partly a real recovery and partly the modified-loan vintage clearing.
PAR120+ reached GHS 22.8M (5.0%) in April — the highest in the four-cycle window and the stock closest to Ghana's DPD 150 write-off threshold. This population is the near-term write-off pipeline; the April spike to GHS 26.5M in write-offs drew from it. PAR60 (GHS 21.2M) and PAR90 (GHS 16.2M) — both essentially modified-free — will age into the write-off pipeline over the next two to three cycles.
| Bucket | Jan (M) | Jan % | Feb (M) | Feb % | Mar (M) | Mar % | Apr (M) | Apr % |
|---|
| Current | 346.3 | 75.0% | 338.3 | 73.0% | 344.7 | 74.4% | 343.2 | 75.1% |
| PAR0 | 35.9 | 7.8% | 47.5 | 10.3% | 28.7 | 6.2% | 34.6 | 7.6% |
| of which modified | 7.2 | 20.0% | 9.6 | 20.2% | 0.1 | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.1% |
| PAR30 | 20.8 | 4.5% | 20.6 | 4.5% | 31.4 | 6.8% | 19.2 | 4.2% |
| of which modified | 0.0 | — | 4.7 | 22.9% | 8.3 | 26.3% | 0.0 | — |
| PAR60 | 19.7 | 4.3% | 17.4 | 3.8% | 20.3 | 4.4% | 21.2 | 4.6% |
| of which modified | 0.0 | — | 0.0 | — | 3.6 | 17.6% | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| PAR90 | 17.3 | 3.7% | 22.6 | 4.9% | 16.9 | 3.7% | 16.2 | 3.5% |
| of which modified | 0.0 | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0 | 0.1% |
| PAR120+ | 22.0 | 4.8% | 16.7 | 3.6% | 20.9 | 4.5% | 22.8 | 5.0% |
| of which modified | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | — |
| PAR30+ | 79.8 | 17.3% | 77.4 | 16.7% | 89.6 | 19.4% | 79.5 | 17.4% |
| Total Loanbook | 462.0 | | 463.2 | | 463.1 | | 457.3 | |
LN Composition
Portfolio composition is stable. L11+ borrowers account for 76.4% of the loanbook — consistent across all four cycles. L0 through L2 together represent 5.3% of the loanbook, effectively unchanged since January.
The BM scoring model operates on L3+ borrowers, who make up 94.7% of the loanbook. No compositional drift is visible across the four-cycle window.
| LN Bucket | Jan (M) | Jan % | Feb (M) | Feb % | Mar (M) | Mar % | Apr (M) | Apr % |
|---|
| L0 | 9.2 | 2.0% | 8.6 | 1.9% | 8.5 | 1.8% | 8.5 | 1.9% |
| L1 | 8.2 | 1.8% | 8.2 | 1.8% | 7.8 | 1.7% | 7.9 | 1.7% |
| L2 | 8.1 | 1.8% | 7.8 | 1.7% | 7.8 | 1.7% | 7.7 | 1.7% |
| L3-5 | 24.7 | 5.3% | 24.4 | 5.3% | 24.8 | 5.4% | 25.0 | 5.5% |
| L6-10 | 59.3 | 12.8% | 60.5 | 13.1% | 60.0 | 12.9% | 59.1 | 12.9% |
| L11+ | 352.5 | 76.3% | 353.7 | 76.4% | 354.2 | 76.5% | 349.1 | 76.4% |
| Total | 462.0 | | 463.2 | | 463.1 | | 457.3 | |
Revenue & Yield
Revenue reached GHS 45.8M in April (+9.1% CoC) — the highest cycle in the four-cycle window. Revenue yield recovered to 13.9% from March's 13.2% trough, narrowing toward January's 14.3% starting point. The pricing tracker showed no policy changes in this window; the yield movement reflects loan mix and volume dynamics.
Interest income drove the recovery: GHS 34.31M in April versus GHS 31.95M in March (+7.4%), tracking the volume increase. Commitment fee reached GHS 5.18M — the highest in four cycles — reflecting the growing disbursement base. Penalty income fell to GHS 1.42M from GHS 1.72M in March, the lowest in the window, consistent with improved borrower repayment behaviour in April.
Revenue by Component
| Component | Jan (M) | /day (K) | Feb (M) | /day (K) | Mar (M) | /day (K) | Apr (M) | /day (K) |
|---|
| Interest | 34.69 | 1,119 | 31.84 | 1,137 | 31.95 | 1,031 | 34.31 | 1,144 |
| Fees | 4.55 | 147 | 4.37 | 156 | 4.78 | 154 | 4.89 | 163 |
| Penalty | 1.46 | 47 | 1.54 | 55 | 1.72 | 56 | 1.42 | 47 |
| Commitment Fee | 4.68 | 151 | 4.63 | 165 | 4.92 | 159 | 5.18 | 173 |
| Total Revenue | 45.38 | 1,464 | 42.38 | 1,514 | 43.38 | 1,399 | 45.80 | 1,527 |
Yield Overview
| Metric | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
|---|
| Revenue / Disbursements | 14.3% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 13.9% |
| Revenue Share of Repayments | 13.8% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 13.1% |
Revenue yield = total revenue / disbursements. Revenue share = total revenue / total repayments (excl. commitment fee). Both unannualized.
Watch List
Write-off acceleration: GHS 26.5M in April (+33.3% CoC) — the highest cycle in the four-cycle window. These loans were disbursed in November–December 2025 and have aged past Ghana's DPD 150 write-off threshold. DR1 for current cohorts (Q1 2026) is tracking at 9.2% and declining — materially lower than the implied default rates in the Nov–Dec vintage. If the December–January cohort ages similarly, write-offs may remain elevated in the May cycle before normalising as the lower-DR Q1 2026 vintage matures into DPD 150.
Modified-loan vintage moved through the PAR ladder over Q1 and has now cleared — but the volume was material and warrants monitoring. Refinanced and restructured contracts accounted for ~20% of January and February PAR0, ~22–26% of February and March PAR30, and ~18% of March PAR60. By April these shares have dropped to near zero across every bucket. March's PAR30 spike was partly this vintage aging in, not generic timing. February FRR30 closed exactly at Ghana's 105.5% recovery threshold; March's FRR30 projection sits above it but is largely unconfirmed (4.9% DPD30 matured). Both the modified-loan flow and the March FRR30 confirmation will be visible in the next cycle run.
Methodology
Cycle windows: 8th of month X to 7th of month X+1. Jan = Jan 8 – Feb 7, 2026 (31d). Feb = Feb 8 – Mar 7, 2026 (28d). Mar = Mar 8 – Apr 7, 2026 (31d). Apr = Apr 8 – May 7, 2026 (30d).
Disbursements & Revenue: From MAMBU.LOANTRANSACTION by ENTRYDATE. Revenue = REPAYMENT transactions only (interest + fees + penalty). Commitment fee = PRINCIPALAMOUNT − AMOUNT from DISBURSMENT transactions. Adjustments included with sign-flip.
Loanbook: LOAN_ACCOUNT_HISTORY snapshots at cycle-end dates (7th). Balance = LEAST(PRINCIPAL_BALANCE, LOANAMOUNT), active loans only.
FRR: MTR003 pattern from ML.REPAYMENT_TRANSACTIONS_EXTENDED. Cohort assigned by DISBURSEMENTDATE. Denominator = ADJUSTED_PRINCIPAL_DUE (Ghana). Uncapped. CG-excluded. Organic excludes refinanced (ORIGINAL_LOAN) and delinquent restructurings (past due when restructured). Postponements not excluded.
DR: FIN021 pattern from ML.LOAN_INFO_TBL. Numerator = REPAID_AMOUNT_DPD{x} (capped to principal). CG-excluded.
PAR: LAH LAYER column at cycle-end snapshots. PAR120+ rolls up all delinquent layers from DPD 120 to write-off threshold (Ghana: PAR120 + PAR150 — writes off at DPD 150+. Uganda: PAR120 + PAR150 + PAR180 — writes off at DPD 180+). Modified-loan decomposition per bucket.
LN Composition: LAH LN column, bucketed (L0, L1, L2, L3-5, L6-10, L11+).
CG Exclusion: Applied to FRR and DR only. Filter: NOT (LN = 0 AND FIDO_MODEL ILIKE '%CG%' OR '%CONTROL%').
Write-off threshold: Ghana = DPD 150+.
